Setting description

Taxel therapies less effective in the TP53+ biomarker signature

Simulations setting

PFS distributions


Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 18.7, median = 15.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.48, hr = 2.6 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 18.7, median = 15.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.48, hr = 2.6 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 18.7, median = 15.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.48, hr = 2.6 af = 1, hr = 1
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 18.7, median = 15.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.48, hr = 2.6 af = 1, hr = 1


By signature:

signature var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 24.8, median = 20.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.64, hr = 1.8 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 18.7, median = 15.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.48, hr = 2.6 af = 1, hr = 1
DRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 24.8, median = 20.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.64, hr = 1.8 af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.037, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 24.8, median = 20.3 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.64, hr = 1.8 af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 59 0 64
TP53- 29 31 19
TP53+ 277 0 285
DRD+ 48 0 69
TEfus+ 76 1 73
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.118 0.000 0.128
TP53- 0.058 0.062 0.038
TP53+ 0.554 0.000 0.570
DRD+ 0.096 0.000 0.138
TEfus+ 0.152 0.002 0.146
futility (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 2 170 3
TP53- 163 151 181
TP53+ 11 371 6
DRD+ 26 119 44
TEfus+ 30 209 24
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.004 0.340 0.006
TP53- 0.326 0.302 0.362
TP53+ 0.022 0.742 0.012
DRD+ 0.052 0.238 0.088
TEfus+ 0.060 0.418 0.048
max sample size (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0 0 0
TP53- 77 66 62
TP53+ 32 0 22
DRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.154 0.132 0.124
TP53+ 0.064 0.000 0.044
DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.846.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.628             0.062             0.654

The overall power was .
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

NULL

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control Hormone_therapies Niraparib Taxel_therapies
all graduation 0 59 64 0
futility 0 2 3 170
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 698 (568, 775) 365 (181, 530) 331 (177, 524) 239 (105, 356)
n_unique 698 (568, 775) 365 (181, 530) 331 (177, 524) 239 (105, 356)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (46, 60) 60 (46, 60) 60 (21, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 36 (16, 51) 31 (17, 54) 28 (9, 52)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.94 (0.61, 1) 0.94 (0.6, 1) 0.16 (0, 0.68)
rate 0.024 (0.023, 0.026) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.021 (0.02, 0.024) 0.028 (0.024, 0.035)
DRD+ graduation 0 48 69 0
futility 0 26 44 119
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 192 (142, 224) 86 (39, 142) 105 (58, 160) 55 (22, 98)
n_unique 192 (142, 224) 86 (39, 142) 105 (58, 160) 55 (22, 98)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (47, 60) 60 (33, 60) 60 (42, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 42 (28, 57) 34 (19, 55) 43 (32, 56)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.78 (0.32, 0.97) 0.79 (0.31, 0.98) 0.27 (0.02, 0.75)
rate 0.024 (0.021, 0.028) 0.021 (0.017, 0.025) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.028 (0.022, 0.038)
TEfus+ graduation 0 76 73 1
futility 0 30 24 209
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 252 (189, 292) 124 (55, 199) 128 (59, 203) 70 (36, 127)
n_unique 252 (189, 292) 124 (55, 199) 128 (59, 203) 70 (36, 127)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (37, 60) 60 (36, 60) 60 (26, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 38 (22, 58) 35 (19, 55) 34 (21, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.88 (0.41, 0.99) 0.9 (0.44, 0.99) 0.16 (0.01, 0.7)
rate 0.025 (0.023, 0.028) 0.021 (0.018, 0.025) 0.021 (0.019, 0.026) 0.03 (0.024, 0.04)
TP53- graduation 0 29 19 31
futility 0 163 181 151
max_n 0 77 62 66
n 390 (317, 431) 177 (62, 302) 164 (58, 300) 186 (56, 302)
n_unique 390 (317, 431) 177 (62, 302) 164 (58, 300) 186 (56, 302)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (21, 60) 60 (20, 60) 60 (22, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 29 (16, 50) 29 (16, 48) 28 (18, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.08, 0.9) 0.5 (0.07, 0.89) 0.52 (0.1, 0.9)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.021 (0.019, 0.026)
TP53+ graduation 0 277 285 0
futility 0 11 6 371
max_n 0 32 22 0
n 322 (200, 365) 181 (68, 288) 170 (69, 280) 52 (37, 73)
n_unique 322 (200, 365) 181 (68, 288) 170 (69, 280) 52 (37, 73)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 54 (22, 60) 52 (23, 60) 35 (19, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 35 (20, 55) 35 (20, 55) 30 (18, 48)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.99 (0.89, 1) 0.99 (0.9, 1) 0 (0, 0.01)
rate 0.029 (0.026, 0.032) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.053 (0.046, 0.063)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control Hormone_therapies Niraparib Taxel_therapies
— graduation 0 232 246 224
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 75 59 66
n 216 (171, 249) 96 (32, 193) 73 (19, 175) 92 (23, 192)
n_unique 216 (171, 249) 96 (32, 193) 73 (19, 175) 92 (23, 192)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.1, 0.88) 0.44 (0.09, 0.88) 0.46 (0.11, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029) 0.022 (0.018, 0.03) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029)
–+ graduation 0 277 293 319
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 69 57 63
n 61 (39, 77) 22 (8, 58) 22 (6, 55) 24 (9, 62)
n_unique 61 (39, 77) 22 (8, 58) 22 (6, 55) 24 (9, 62)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.48 (0.14, 0.87) 0.47 (0.12, 0.86) 0.53 (0.13, 0.91)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.026) 0.022 (0.016, 0.034) 0.022 (0.015, 0.037) 0.022 (0.015, 0.033)
-+- graduation 0 300 310 455
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 32 22 0
n 137 (87, 162) 80 (29, 138) 60 (18, 126) 20 (12, 34)
n_unique 137 (87, 162) 80 (29, 138) 60 (18, 126) 20 (12, 34)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.94 (0.63, 1) 0.93 (0.54, 1) 0.01 (0, 0.1)
rate 0.029 (0.025, 0.034) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.054 (0.044, 0.072)
-++ graduation 0 335 339 472
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 30 22 0
n 98 (57, 119) 53 (18, 99) 44 (16, 96) 17 (10, 29)
n_unique 98 (57, 119) 53 (18, 99) 44 (16, 96) 17 (10, 29)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.9 (0.5, 1) 0.91 (0.51, 1) 0.02 (0, 0.18)
rate 0.029 (0.024, 0.035) 0.022 (0.017, 0.029) 0.021 (0.017, 0.028) 0.054 (0.043, 0.076)
+– graduation 0 268 288 282
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 70 58 64
n 55 (39, 70) 21 (6, 47) 26 (10, 53) 20 (4, 46)
n_unique 55 (39, 70) 21 (6, 47) 26 (10, 53) 20 (4, 46)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.16, 0.89) 0.52 (0.11, 0.88) 0.51 (0.14, 0.86)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.021 (0.014, 0.036) 0.022 (0.016, 0.033) 0.022 (0.014, 0.038)
+-+ graduation 0 304 324 353
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 65 56 61
n 54 (34, 68) 20 (5, 46) 23 (11, 52) 17 (4, 45)
n_unique 54 (34, 68) 20 (5, 46) 23 (11, 52) 17 (4, 45)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.11, 0.84) 0.47 (0.14, 0.87) 0.49 (0.12, 0.84)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.027) 0.022 (0.015, 0.036) 0.023 (0.016, 0.033) 0.022 (0.014, 0.04)
++- graduation 0 324 345 462
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 32 21 0
n 41 (25, 54) 18 (5, 39) 23 (10, 44) 6 (2, 13)
n_unique 41 (25, 54) 18 (5, 39) 23 (10, 44) 6 (2, 13)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.79 (0.33, 0.97) 0.84 (0.37, 0.98) 0.15 (0.03, 0.42)
rate 0.029 (0.022, 0.038) 0.021 (0.013, 0.036) 0.022 (0.016, 0.032) 0.057 (0.036, 0.103)
+++ graduation 0 353 365 477
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 30 21 0
n 40 (22, 53) 18 (5, 38) 23 (10, 44) 6 (2, 14)
n_unique 40 (22, 53) 18 (5, 38) 23 (10, 44) 6 (2, 14)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.77 (0.34, 0.97) 0.82 (0.38, 0.98) 0.15 (0.03, 0.41)
rate 0.029 (0.022, 0.038) 0.021 (0.014, 0.034) 0.022 (0.015, 0.032) 0.056 (0.036, 0.123)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var Hormone_therapies Niraparib Taxel_therapies
all count 59 64
time_stop 36 (16, 51) 32 (17, 54)
n_trt 244 (119, 451) 224 (113, 426)
n_control 411 (182, 617) 375 (176, 653)
post_p 1 (0.96, 1) 0.99 (0.94, 1)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4)
TP53- count 29 19 31
time_stop 30 (16, 47) 37 (18, 54) 24 (16, 54)
n_trt 106 (63, 173) 113 (68, 272) 108 (67, 245)
n_control 181 (96, 295) 273 (133, 382) 147 (99, 335)
post_p 0.96 (0.89, 0.99) 0.98 (0.95, 1) 0.96 (0.89, 0.99)
order 2 (1, 4) 3 (1, 4.2) 1 (1, 4)
TP53+ count 277 285
time_stop 37 (20, 55) 35 (20, 55)
n_trt 132 (64, 244) 126 (65, 227)
n_control 195 (99, 317) 185 (105, 297)
post_p 0.99 (0.93, 1) 0.99 (0.96, 1)
order 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 3)
DRD+ count 48 69
time_stop 44 (28, 57) 41 (20, 57)
n_trt 72 (53, 123) 95 (56, 146)
n_control 139 (93, 183) 125 (64, 186)
post_p 0.98 (0.94, 1) 0.98 (0.94, 1)
order 2.5 (2, 4.3) 3 (1, 4)
TEfus+ count 76 73 1
time_stop 40 (22, 59) 36 (19, 56) 22 (22, 22)
n_trt 92 (55, 188) 88 (57, 166) 57 (57, 57)
n_control 172 (94, 260) 159 (74, 243) 79 (79, 79)
post_p 0.98 (0.94, 1) 0.98 (0.93, 1) 0.99 (0.99, 0.99)
order 3 (1, 5) 2 (1, 5) 2 (2, 2)
Futility:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 2 170 3
time_stop 32 (29, 35) 28 (9, 52) 20 (12, 22)
n_trt 189 (147, 231) 133 (63, 237) 100 (65, 117)
n_control 368 (338, 398) 325 (94, 605) 241 (131, 273)
post_p 0.11 (0.06, 0.16) 0.02 (0, 0.12) 0.08 (0.04, 0.14)
order 4.5 (4.1, 4.9) 2 (1, 4.1) 2 (1.2, 2)
TP53- count 163 151 181
time_stop 29 (16, 50) 28 (18, 53) 29 (16, 47)
n_trt 89 (52, 189) 94 (57, 194) 83 (51, 204)
n_control 182 (95, 337) 175 (104, 341) 182 (90, 317)
post_p 0.14 (0.05, 0.26) 0.15 (0.05, 0.26) 0.13 (0.04, 0.24)
order 2 (1, 4) 3 (1, 5) 2 (1, 4)
TP53+ count 11 371 6
time_stop 23 (17, 34) 30 (18, 48) 26 (19, 48)
n_trt 70 (55, 81) 54 (50, 75) 70 (51, 108)
n_control 116 (92, 194) 158 (87, 276) 139 (94, 263)
post_p 0.2 (0.1, 0.26) 0.01 (0, 0.14) 0.11 (0.05, 0.26)
order 1 (1, 3) 1 (1, 3) 1.5 (1, 4)
DRD+ count 26 119 44
time_stop 40 (29, 56) 43 (32, 56) 28 (19, 48)
n_trt 61 (50, 114) 58 (50, 89) 63 (54, 100)
n_control 126 (91, 185) 143 (101, 188) 92 (54, 147)
post_p 0.15 (0.07, 0.28) 0.13 (0.02, 0.27) 0.14 (0.05, 0.26)
order 3 (2, 6) 3 (2, 5) 3 (1, 4.7)
TEfus+ count 30 209 24
time_stop 33 (23, 48) 34 (21, 54) 32 (19, 48)
n_trt 68 (50, 116) 61 (50, 96) 58 (50, 128)
n_control 142 (91, 193) 142 (86, 226) 138 (73, 216)
post_p 0.13 (0.04, 0.29) 0.08 (0.01, 0.24) 0.14 (0.05, 0.26)
order 3 (1, 4.1) 3 (1, 5) 2 (1, 5)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59
time 36 (16, 51) 36 (16, 51) 36 (16, 51) 36 (16, 51) 36 (16, 51) 36 (16, 51) 36 (16, 51) 36 (16, 51)
n 83 (36, 165) 20 (9, 42) 49 (20, 88) 27 (11, 62) 17 (7, 35) 13 (6, 32) 8 (4, 26) 11 (2, 28)
post_p 0.7 (0.57, 0.91) 0.66 (0.56, 0.86) 0.94 (0.61, 0.99) 0.8 (0.63, 0.98) 0.63 (0.56, 0.84) 0.63 (0.56, 0.86) 0.7 (0.57, 0.86) 0.74 (0.56, 0.93)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.012, 0.021) 0.013 (0, 0.022) 0.016 (0.009, 0.022) 0.017 (0.004, 0.024) 0.012 (0, 0.019) 0.012 (0, 0.019) 0.015 (0, 0.023) 0.012 (0, 0.024)
Niraparib count 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64
time 32 (17, 54) 32 (17, 54) 32 (17, 54) 32 (17, 54) 32 (17, 54) 32 (17, 54) 32 (17, 54) 32 (17, 54)
n 56 (14, 139) 14 (6, 46) 36 (13, 96) 28 (10, 68) 18 (10, 39) 20 (9, 38) 17 (8, 29) 16 (8, 32)
post_p 0.7 (0.59, 0.89) 0.63 (0.56, 0.78) 0.87 (0.63, 0.99) 0.79 (0.59, 0.98) 0.69 (0.57, 0.89) 0.67 (0.56, 0.86) 0.77 (0.59, 0.96) 0.8 (0.6, 0.96)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.015 (0, 0.019) 0.013 (0, 0.022) 0.017 (0, 0.023) 0.018 (0.005, 0.025) 0.015 (0.006, 0.023) 0.016 (0.003, 0.021) 0.017 (0.007, 0.025) 0.015 (0, 0.024)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 48 48 48 48
time 44 (28, 57) 44 (28, 57) 44 (28, 57) 44 (28, 57)
n 24 (9, 40) 20 (8, 40) 16 (5, 32) 16 (6, 36)
post_p 0.79 (0.69, 0.92) 0.73 (0.63, 0.89) 0.83 (0.72, 0.95) 0.81 (0.67, 0.97)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.012 (0.006, 0.017) 0.015 (0.006, 0.02) 0.014 (0.003, 0.022) 0.014 (0.006, 0.024)
Niraparib count 69 69 69 69
time 41 (20, 57) 41 (20, 57) 41 (20, 57) 41 (20, 57)
n 24 (12, 47) 24 (13, 47) 21 (9, 37) 20 (8, 38)
post_p 0.75 (0.7, 0.9) 0.78 (0.71, 0.95) 0.81 (0.71, 0.96) 0.84 (0.71, 0.97)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.005, 0.023) 0.015 (0.004, 0.02) 0.018 (0.006, 0.025) 0.017 (0.007, 0.024)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 76 76 76 76
time 40 (22, 59) 40 (22, 59) 40 (22, 59) 40 (22, 59)
n 23 (10, 50) 38 (18, 85) 17 (7, 38) 14 (5, 33)
post_p 0.76 (0.68, 0.92) 0.9 (0.73, 0.99) 0.74 (0.62, 0.88) 0.78 (0.63, 0.94)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.006, 0.018) 0.017 (0.008, 0.024) 0.012 (0, 0.019) 0.015 (0, 0.024)
Niraparib count 73 73 73 73
time 36 (19, 56) 36 (19, 56) 36 (19, 56) 36 (19, 56)
n 19 (7, 45) 28 (13, 68) 22 (12, 41) 18 (9, 33)
post_p 0.75 (0.63, 0.92) 0.85 (0.71, 0.99) 0.74 (0.7, 0.86) 0.82 (0.71, 0.96)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.012 (0, 0.019) 0.016 (0.006, 0.024) 0.013 (0.004, 0.021) 0.016 (0.007, 0.023)
Taxel_therapies count 1 1 1 1
time 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22) 22 (22, 22)
n 11 (11, 11) 27 (27, 27) 9 (9, 9) 10 (10, 10)
post_p 0.78 (0.78, 0.78) 0.98 (0.98, 0.98) 0.69 (0.69, 0.69) 0.61 (0.61, 0.61)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0 (0, 0) 0.009 (0.009, 0.009) 0 (0, 0) 0.016 (0.016, 0.016)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 29 29 29 29
time 30 (16, 47) 30 (16, 47) 30 (16, 47) 30 (16, 47)
n 64 (39, 104) 16 (9, 32) 10 (4, 25) 9 (4, 22)
post_p 0.81 (0.74, 0.92) 0.74 (0.63, 0.86) 0.72 (0.61, 0.85) 0.72 (0.61, 0.84)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.008, 0.019) 0.011 (0, 0.018) 0.006 (0, 0.016) 0.009 (0, 0.016)
Niraparib count 19 19 19 19
time 37 (18, 54) 37 (18, 54) 37 (18, 54) 37 (18, 54)
n 56 (27, 146) 17 (9, 47) 20 (14, 47) 28 (13, 45)
post_p 0.8 (0.73, 0.94) 0.78 (0.66, 0.89) 0.81 (0.7, 0.93) 0.74 (0.7, 0.92)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.004, 0.019) 0.011 (0, 0.018) 0.012 (0.003, 0.019) 0.012 (0, 0.02)
Taxel_therapies count 31 31 31 31
time 24 (16, 54) 24 (16, 54) 24 (16, 54) 24 (16, 54)
n 57 (36, 119) 19 (10, 39) 14 (6, 33) 13 (4, 45)
post_p 0.77 (0.71, 0.96) 0.74 (0.7, 0.91) 0.73 (0.6, 0.86) 0.76 (0.63, 0.88)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.007, 0.02) 0.014 (0.005, 0.019) 0.005 (0, 0.019) 0.006 (0, 0.016)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 277 277 277 277
time 37 (20, 55) 37 (20, 55) 37 (20, 55) 37 (20, 55)
n 61 (27, 112) 43 (20, 85) 15 (4, 32) 15 (5, 31)
post_p 0.89 (0.72, 0.99) 0.85 (0.71, 0.99) 0.75 (0.62, 0.94) 0.74 (0.62, 0.93)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.018 (0.01, 0.024) 0.017 (0.008, 0.023) 0.013 (0, 0.022) 0.013 (0, 0.022)
Niraparib count 285 285 285 285
time 35 (20, 55) 35 (20, 55) 35 (20, 55) 35 (20, 55)
n 48 (18, 102) 34 (16, 73) 20 (9, 38) 19 (10, 37)
post_p 0.85 (0.72, 0.98) 0.82 (0.71, 0.98) 0.8 (0.7, 0.96) 0.79 (0.7, 0.95)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.008, 0.023) 0.017 (0.009, 0.023) 0.017 (0.007, 0.025) 0.017 (0.008, 0.024)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
time 32 (29, 35) 32 (29, 35) 32 (29, 35) 32 (29, 35) 32 (29, 35) 32 (29, 35) 32 (29, 35) 32 (29, 35)
n 62 (36, 88) 21 (21, 21) 47 (45, 49) 8 (7, 8) 24 (12, 35) 5 (3, 7) 10 (9, 12) 12 (9, 16)
post_p 0.4 (0.34, 0.47) 0.24 (0.23, 0.25) 0.49 (0.48, 0.5) 0.3 (0.21, 0.4) 0.33 (0.2, 0.45) 0.27 (0.21, 0.33) 0.32 (0.24, 0.4) 0.32 (0.24, 0.39)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.019, 0.02) 0.027 (0.024, 0.029) 0.026 (0.021, 0.031) 0.035 (0.031, 0.039) 0.026 (0.019, 0.034) 0.043 (0.034, 0.052) 0.027 (0.019, 0.036) 0.036 (0.025, 0.046)
Niraparib count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 20 (12, 22) 20 (12, 22) 20 (12, 22) 20 (12, 22) 20 (12, 22) 20 (12, 22) 20 (12, 22) 20 (12, 22)
n 19 (9, 29) 3 (3, 9) 12 (9, 19) 16 (5, 18) 8 (7, 10) 12 (12, 15) 6 (6, 9) 11 (11, 17)
post_p 0.34 (0.25, 0.39) 0.39 (0.23, 0.4) 0.3 (0.24, 0.39) 0.35 (0.33, 0.35) 0.42 (0.39, 0.47) 0.35 (0.22, 0.37) 0.46 (0.45, 0.47) 0.44 (0.41, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.018 (0.015, 0.049) 0.03 (0.006, 0.032) 0.036 (0.033, 0.042) 0.027 (0.023, 0.085) 0.021 (0.016, 0.023) 0.016 (0.015, 0.027) 0.032 (0.006, 0.032) 0.019 (0.018, 0.027)
Taxel_therapies count 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170
time 28 (9, 52) 28 (9, 52) 28 (9, 52) 28 (9, 52) 28 (9, 52) 28 (9, 52) 28 (9, 52) 28 (9, 52)
n 42 (15, 106) 16 (6, 35) 18 (12, 33) 14 (9, 26) 8 (2, 23) 9 (2, 25) 5 (1, 12) 5 (1, 10)
post_p 0.35 (0.13, 0.48) 0.36 (0.16, 0.48) 0.09 (0, 0.36) 0.1 (0.01, 0.36) 0.39 (0.2, 0.48) 0.37 (0.18, 0.48) 0.25 (0.07, 0.46) 0.26 (0.05, 0.45)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.031) 0.023 (0.015, 0.047) 0.048 (0.031, 0.071) 0.048 (0.032, 0.082) 0.023 (0, 0.046) 0.024 (0, 0.057) 0.051 (0.022, 0.103) 0.05 (0.022, 0.136)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 26 26 26 26
time 40 (29, 56) 40 (29, 56) 40 (29, 56) 40 (29, 56)
n 21 (8, 38) 18 (7, 39) 13 (5, 29) 14 (5, 24)
post_p 0.4 (0.15, 0.47) 0.3 (0.11, 0.44) 0.39 (0.18, 0.48) 0.37 (0.18, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.041) 0.027 (0.017, 0.036) 0.033 (0.02, 0.043) 0.031 (0.022, 0.054)
Niraparib count 44 44 44 44
time 28 (19, 48) 28 (19, 48) 28 (19, 48) 28 (19, 48)
n 16 (9, 36) 16 (12, 31) 15 (10, 26) 15 (9, 24)
post_p 0.35 (0.05, 0.47) 0.33 (0.17, 0.46) 0.41 (0.29, 0.48) 0.41 (0.21, 0.5)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.024 (0.015, 0.038) 0.023 (0.017, 0.033) 0.027 (0.018, 0.035) 0.025 (0.016, 0.045)
Taxel_therapies count 119 119 119 119
time 43 (32, 56) 43 (32, 56) 43 (32, 56) 43 (32, 56)
n 23 (12, 43) 22 (9, 38) 7 (3, 14) 7 (3, 15)
post_p 0.37 (0.13, 0.48) 0.39 (0.16, 0.48) 0.21 (0.04, 0.4) 0.21 (0.03, 0.4)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0.022 (0.016, 0.031) 0.052 (0.03, 0.1) 0.048 (0.034, 0.121)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 30 30 30 30
time 33 (23, 48) 33 (23, 48) 33 (23, 48) 33 (23, 48)
n 16 (5, 35) 32 (17, 55) 10 (4, 25) 10 (6, 20)
post_p 0.35 (0.12, 0.48) 0.39 (0.17, 0.46) 0.32 (0.13, 0.46) 0.43 (0.22, 0.48)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.018, 0.044) 0.027 (0.021, 0.033) 0.025 (0.016, 0.044) 0.034 (0.015, 0.054)
Niraparib count 24 24 24 24
time 32 (19, 48) 32 (19, 48) 32 (19, 48) 32 (19, 48)
n 12 (4, 24) 23 (9, 53) 15 (10, 30) 18 (8, 32)
post_p 0.26 (0.11, 0.43) 0.43 (0.34, 0.48) 0.32 (0.13, 0.44) 0.43 (0.24, 0.48)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.032 (0.02, 0.048) 0.028 (0.02, 0.038) 0.027 (0.019, 0.035) 0.03 (0.019, 0.043)
Taxel_therapies count 209 209 209 209
time 34 (21, 54) 34 (21, 54) 34 (21, 54) 34 (21, 54)
n 21 (11, 40) 18 (11, 29) 16 (5, 31) 7 (3, 14)
post_p 0.4 (0.16, 0.48) 0.08 (0, 0.37) 0.4 (0.16, 0.48) 0.25 (0.06, 0.44)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.033) 0.049 (0.033, 0.074) 0.023 (0.014, 0.039) 0.047 (0.029, 0.124)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 163 163 163 163
time 29 (16, 50) 29 (16, 50) 29 (16, 50) 29 (16, 50)
n 48 (26, 116) 14 (5, 35) 11 (4, 32) 10 (4, 30)
post_p 0.3 (0.09, 0.47) 0.35 (0.15, 0.48) 0.36 (0.19, 0.48) 0.37 (0.2, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.029) 0.024 (0.015, 0.043) 0.024 (0.014, 0.053) 0.024 (0.013, 0.054)
Niraparib count 181 181 181 181
time 29 (16, 47) 29 (16, 47) 29 (16, 47) 29 (16, 47)
n 36 (16, 116) 12 (5, 36) 15 (8, 36) 17 (9, 34)
post_p 0.34 (0.1, 0.47) 0.35 (0.16, 0.47) 0.35 (0.12, 0.48) 0.36 (0.14, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.033) 0.024 (0.016, 0.046) 0.024 (0.015, 0.037) 0.024 (0.017, 0.036)
Taxel_therapies count 151 151 151 151
time 28 (18, 53) 28 (18, 53) 28 (18, 53) 28 (18, 53)
n 51 (23, 121) 17 (7, 37) 11 (4, 26) 11 (4, 27)
post_p 0.33 (0.13, 0.48) 0.37 (0.17, 0.48) 0.36 (0.2, 0.47) 0.36 (0.15, 0.47)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.028) 0.023 (0.015, 0.039) 0.026 (0.015, 0.047) 0.025 (0.016, 0.055)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 11 11 11 11
time 23 (17, 34) 23 (17, 34) 23 (17, 34) 23 (17, 34)
n 38 (25, 50) 12 (8, 29) 11 (4, 15) 5 (2, 10)
post_p 0.4 (0.14, 0.48) 0.42 (0.2, 0.49) 0.37 (0.19, 0.48) 0.42 (0.33, 0.46)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.018, 0.034) 0.029 (0.019, 0.042) 0.026 (0.017, 0.062) 0.036 (0.015, 0.052)
Niraparib count 6 6 6 6
time 26 (19, 48) 26 (19, 48) 26 (19, 48) 26 (19, 48)
n 14 (6, 44) 22 (11, 48) 17 (10, 19) 11 (7, 22)
post_p 0.11 (0.07, 0.4) 0.34 (0.23, 0.47) 0.32 (0.09, 0.45) 0.42 (0.2, 0.46)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.046 (0.029, 0.091) 0.027 (0.022, 0.037) 0.029 (0.026, 0.054) 0.037 (0.024, 0.056)
Taxel_therapies count 371 371 371 371
time 30 (18, 48) 30 (18, 48) 30 (18, 48) 30 (18, 48)
n 23 (13, 37) 18 (11, 30) 7 (3, 13) 7 (3, 15)
post_p 0.07 (0, 0.38) 0.11 (0.01, 0.42) 0.31 (0.08, 0.47) 0.29 (0.06, 0.46)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.048 (0.032, 0.071) 0.045 (0.03, 0.073) 0.047 (0.023, 0.101) 0.047 (0.024, 0.114)